Welcome to 2025! It's a new year with a new administration coming in the next few weeks. The past several years have seen a dramatic series of changes (and challenges) in the higher education industry. Here are our 5 predictions for the coming year.
As we previously covered in our enrollment trends article: 2024 Fall Enrollment Report - The Higher Education Shake-up Continues; over the past two years, traditional college enrollment has declined while nontraditional enrollment increased. We expect that in 2025, that this trend will continue, and that the incoming Trump administration will take steps to encourage that trend.
The new administration will support the creation of “more affordable alternatives to a traditional four-year college degree” and “fund proven career training programs.”
As such, the Trump administration has outlined several initiatives aimed at providing more affordable alternatives to traditional four-year degrees. One of the key strategies includes expanding federal aid to credential programs, which offer shorter, more focused training for specific careers[1]. Additionally, the administration plans to reform the accreditation process to support accelerated and low-cost degree options[2]. By shifting more educational responsibilities to the states, the administration aims to foster innovation and tailor education to local needs[2]. These efforts are part of a broader agenda to reduce the financial burden on students and make higher education more accessible and practical for a wider range of career paths[1][2].
The Trump administration's plans to crack down on immigration and spin off federal student aid are expected to significantly increase the compliance burden on higher education institutions. Stricter immigration policies, including heightened scrutiny of student visas and potential restrictions on international student enrollments, will require universities to invest more resources in monitoring and supporting their international student populations[1].
Additionally, the proposed decentralization of federal student aid, potentially shifting responsibilities to state governments or other federal departments, will create a complex and fragmented system[2]. This shift will necessitate extensive administrative adjustments and increased coordination efforts, further straining institutional resources[2]. Overall, these changes could lead to higher operational costs and administrative challenges for colleges and universities[1].
The Trump administration's plans to change accreditation requirements, particularly those related to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), combined with the Supreme Court's ruling against affirmative action, and initiatives to curb "wokeness," will place colleges and universities under increased government scrutiny. By targeting DEI programs and mandating that accreditation bodies eliminate DEI-related criteria, the administration aims to reduce what it perceives as leftist bias in higher education[1].
The Supreme Court's decision to strike down affirmative action further complicates admissions processes, requiring institutions to overhaul their policies to comply with the new legal landscape[2]. Additionally, initiatives to curb "wokeness" will likely involve monitoring and regulating campus activities and curricula to ensure they align with the administration's vision of traditional American values[3]. These combined efforts will necessitate significant administrative adjustments and compliance measures, increasing the operational burden on educational institutions[1][2].
Colleges and universities should brace for significant regulatory changes in several key areas, including Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), religion, immigration, affirmative action, and financial aid. The Trump administration's push to eliminate DEI criteria from accreditation requirements and the Supreme Court's ruling against affirmative action will compel institutions to overhaul their admissions and hiring practices[1][2]. Stricter immigration policies will increase the administrative burden of managing international student enrollments[3].
Additionally, the decentralization of federal student aid could cause a disorganized rollout, similar to the that of the 2024 FAFSA, which was plagued by delays and technical issues[4][5]. These changes are expected to cause widespread confusion and require extensive adjustments, further straining institutional resources[4][5].
Higher education institutions should anticipate receiving less guidance from federal and state governments on adhering to regulations; leading to increased uncertainty and administrative challenges. For example, the state of Florida's department of education recently removed guidance on adhering to residency regulations from its official website, leaving institutions without clear directives.
This trend reflects a broader shift towards decentralization at the same time that new regulations are being contemplated. This compels colleges and universities to navigate complex regulatory landscapes with minimal support. As a result, institutions will need to allocate more resources to ensure compliance, potentially diverting attention from their primary educational missions.